Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes

We use administrative data from Florida to determine the extent to which participation in prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) improves post-release earnings and/or employment. Utilizing a comparison group of inmates who had similar TABE scores on prison entry and a rich set of conditioning covariates, we find no systematic evidence that ABE participation is associated with higher post-release earnings. We do find, however, that ABE participation is associated with an increased probability of post-release employment. We also find that the ABE-employment relationship is the largest for ABE participants who had substantial amount of uninterrupted ABE instruction. * Assistant Professor of Education and Public Policy, Brown University ** Associate Professor of Education, Public Policy, and Economics, Brown University and NBER We wish to acknowledge the assistance of Jillian Berk in working with the Florida data and the assistance of John L. Lewis in the Florida Department of Corrections and Duane Whitfield in the Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program for assistance in constructing and providing access to the data that supported this analysis. Any errors and all interpretations reside with the authors. Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes Introduction Over the last three decades the convergence of several social and economic forces has worked to alter the size, face, and nature of the U.S. penal system. In terms of the size of the penal system, changes in criminal justice policies associated with the wars on drugs and crime mean that more convictions now lead to a prison sentence than in the past, and the sentences tend to be of longer duration than in the past. The most obvious result of these policy shifts is a rising penal population. There are currently more than 1.5 million prisoners incarcerated in U.S. state or federal prisons (Sabol et al., 2007). Of particular relevance for the topic of this paper is that the majority of inmates who are incarcerated lack basic educational and employment skills. It is reported that about 68 percent of U.S. State prison inmates do not hold a high school diploma (Harlow, 2003). In Florida, a state that houses the third largest number of prisoners behind California and Texas, nearly 80 percent of the prison inmates are reported to test below the ninth grade literacy level (OPPAGA, 2000). Since almost all prison inmates will eventually be released, prison-based programs that can help ex-offenders with low levels of education more successfully reintegrate into society by increasing their cognitive skills can be a critical element of the penal experience. Perhaps in recognition of this most prisons offer education opportunities to their inmates. In 2000, 91 percent of state prisons and all federal prisons reported offering educational opportunities to their inmates (Harlow, 2003). One important education offering found in most prisons is the provision of Adult Basic Education (ABE) courses. By definition, ABE programs provide education to individuals who are reading below the ninth grade level. Once participants can read at the 9 grade level they can move on to Adult Secondary Education (ASE) classes, which are almost universally classes geared toward preparation for the General Educational Development (GED) exams. Thus, in theory, many prisons offer a sequence of courses that could advance one from very low reading and math levels to skills commensurate with GED acquisition or even postsecondary education. For the large portion of offenders who enter prison with very low skills, this process starts with ABE coursework and some states require ABE participation for inmates who test below a certain threshold level of proficiency. In Florida, for instance, inmates are mandated 150 hours of literacy education if they test below the ninth grade level. At least in the late 1990s there were attempts to expand education offerings to incarcerated individuals as the percentage of state prisons offering basic education classes increased from76 to 80 percent between 1 A significant portion of inmates identified with educational program needs are reported to not participate or complete educational programs due to movement or transfer across facilities in accordance to their custody level or because of their short prison stay (OPPAGA, 2000). 2 The statute exempts certain inmates, such as those serving a life sentence or housed at a work camp. Section 944.801, F.S. (OPPAGA, 2000) Reentry Roundtable on Education, March 31 and April 1, 2008 Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes 2 1995 and 2000, while the provision of ASE courses went from 80 to 84 percent (Harlow, 2003). Despite the importance and prevalence of prison-based ABE programs, the literature examining the impact of these programs on post-release outcomes is relatively limited. Of the studies that do exist, most examine the impact of ABE participation on recidivism. Primarily due to data limitations there are few studies that examine impact on post-release labor market outcomes. A 2006 review by Aos, Miller, and Drake (2006) lists five studies that dealt with “Basic Adult Education Programs in Prison.” Their examination of these studies reports an average reduction in recidivism of about five percent for ABE program participants. It is hard, however, to assess the rigor of these studies. Only one of the studies in the Aos et al. report has undergone peer review and four of the five are unpublished reports or working papers. One of these unpublished reports, Harer (1995), represents a rigorous attempt at examining program impact, but it appears that the “treatment” variable in this study is not ABE participation, but rather participation in any correctional education program. Thus, even though the Harer study is well done, it is not clear what we learn about ABE impact from this work. In general, there may well be reason for concern about our knowledge base when it comes to the effectiveness of prison-based programming, including ABE. Our limited examination of the correctional evaluation literature suggests an overabundance of studies that fail to do an adequate job of making the treatment and comparison groups truly comparable. A statement by Wilson, Gallagher, and MacKenzie in their metaanalysis of the effectiveness of corrections education, vocational, and work programs reflects our own concern about research in this area. They write of the 33 studies they examined: “[t]he control variables were generally restricted to gender, race, and age...[and only one study] controlled for important sources of selection bias between participants and nonparticipants, such as prior criminal history, in the analysis of recidivism” (Wilson, Gallagher, and MacKenzie 2000, pg. 355). Again, our cursory examination of the literature suggests that the lack of appropriate data has been the primary limitation to carrying out correctional-program impact research that could be considered to be “rigorous.” One cannot control for confounding factors using data that lack the necessary control variables. The prevalence and potential importance of prison-based ABE, combined with the dearth of convincing research in this area provide the motivation for this paper. In what follows we use rich administrative data from several state agencies in Florida to examine the relationship between participation in prison ABE programs and post-release labor market outcomes. The wide array of variables in the Florida data allow for a rich set of covariates that we use in constructing a suitable comparison group against which to judge the outcomes of ABE participants. Meanwhile, the panel nature of our data allows us to control for unobserved, time-invariant fixed effects. Importantly, the data also allow us to study aspects of ABE participation that are likely important in understanding how ABE participation might or might not be related to post-release outcomes. In particular, we are able to observe the extent to which ABE education in Florida prisons is characterized by continuous, uninterrupted participation or by stops and starts in program participation over time. We are also able to observe interruptions to ABE participation that may be related to movements across prison facilities during ABE participation. Reentry Roundtable on Education, March 31 and April 1, 2008 Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes 3 The most elementary yet most empirically significant contribution of this paper is our ability to analyze longitudinal data on a large population-based sample. Specifically, we use panel data on 9,609 male inmates who entered the Florida state prison system over an 8 year period xxx. The data we use contain information on an inmate’s earnings prior to and after incarceration, a detailed history of his prior criminal justice history, rich information on prison-based program participation including number of hours, program start and stop dates, and the facility where the programming took place, detailed demographic information including race, age, highest level of education, prior employment history, and a measure of cognitive skills at the time of prison entry. In theory, one would expect that participating in ABE programs might increase the earnings or employment rates of inmates after release from prison by increasing their human capital. On the other hand, there may be several reasons why ABE may not be so effective. For example, inmates may not be taking enough ABE hours as are necessary to truly alter their skills in the long run. A not mutually exclusive reason is that inmates may not have the opportunity to get high quality education due to frequent disruptions in course-taking. That is, ABE education “as delivered” in our nation’s prisons may fall far short of ABE “as designed” or imagined in the ideal. At least in a limited sense, we will be able to examine these issues. Constructing a Comparison Group in the Florida Data The average effect of ABE programs could be easily estimated if it were possible to simultaneously observe an inmate’s post-release outcomes had he participated in prison-based ABE instruction and had he not participated. The average effect of “treatment on the treated” could then be estimated by taking the average of all of the individual differences in the post-release outcomes between the two scenarios. However, an evaluation problem arises due to the fact that we do not observe the counterfactual outcome: the post-release outcomes of inmates had they not participated in the ABE program. We are forced to rely on statistical tools to create a comparable counterfactual. Fortunately, given the data that we have, it is possible to construct a comparison group who did not participate in any ABE course work, but who were nevertheless performing at a similar level of cognitive functioning upon prison entry relative to inmates who took ABE classes and who are similar on other observable dimensions to those we observe in prison-based ABE coursework. Our measure of cognitive functioning is scores on the Tests of Adult Basic Education (TABE) which are used to assess the levels of literacy and numeracy of each inmate as he enters a Florida state prison. In Florida every criminal justice offender whose conviction and judgment leads to a prison sentence begins their journey through the state penal system at one of several designated “reception centers.” At these intake points in the system each entering offender’s mental, physical, and cognitive functioning levels are assessed. Cognitive functioning in the reception center is assessed via administration of the TABE Survey test battery, with scores reported as grade equivalents ranging from 0 to 12.9. Importantly, there are no selection issues with the TABE scores we use since every new prisoner is required to take the exams. Also, it is unlikely that TABE test scores in this setting are endogenous to post-release outcomes, and since inmates are tested immediately at the point of prison entry, the test scores we use are not confounded with the participation of any prison-based program. Reentry Roundtable on Education, March 31 and April 1, 2008 Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes 4 An inmate is considered to be participating in the ABE program in our analysis if he is observed to be taking any ABE classes during his prison spell. The data show considerable variation in years of education and proficiency level among those who appear in ABE classes. In our analysis we restrict the sample of ABE participants to include only individuals who do not hold a high school diploma. We omit any high school graduates who score below the 9 grade proficiency level (i.e., those with scores of 8.9 or below) since these individuals may differ on unobservable dimensions relative to dropouts with low literacy levels. In what follows we define as our “ABE group,” all school dropouts with TABE scores of 8.9 or lower who evidence some ABE coursework during their prison spell. Within the ABE group, there will be inmates who also participate in other academic programs such as the GED during their prison stay. We discuss the potential effects of participation in other academic programs in later sections. The comparison group that we use in our analyses is composed of high school dropout male inmates who score below the ninth grade proficiency level on the TABE but do not take any academic courses during their prison stay. The “impact” of participating in ABE programs is defined as the difference between the post-release earnings and employment rates of the “ABE group” relative to this comparison group. An advantage of using a comparison group composed of inmates also performing below the ninth grade proficiency level is that it will prevent us from underestimating the relationship between prison-based adult basic education and post-release labor market outcomes. This also translates into reduced selection on unobservable characteristics. Data We use a unique data set that was constructed through the cooperation of three state agencies in Florida. The Florida Department of Corrections (FDOC), the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, and the Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program worked together to collect and merge data from their respective agencies for our use. Before release to us the data was purged of all information that would allow for the identification of individuals. The result is a data set containing individual-level demographic, criminal justice history, and incarceration information, along with state Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage records. Using these data we examine the relationship of participating in ABE classes relative to two post-release outcome variables – quarterly earnings as measured by UI wage records and quarterly employment rates as measured by non-zero UI quarterly wage records. Our analytic data file consists of a sample of males who (1) entered prison after October 1, 1994 and (2) had forecasted release dates that were early enough to allow for 3 The majority of inmates taking ABE classes do not hold a high school diploma – about 91 percent. Including both high school graduates and dropouts, ABE participants have on average 9.5 years of education. Likewise, very few inmates who score above the ninth grade proficiency level on TABE take ABE classes– less than 2 percent. The average TABE score is about 7.3. 4 About 13.5 percent of the ABE participants participated in a GED class and about 10 percent of them acquired a GED certificate during their prison spell. 5 Using inmate Social Security Numbers (SSNs), DOC data were matched to earnings data from the Florida Unemployment Insurance (UI) System by programmers at the federal Social Security Administration. About 19 percent of the sample lacks a valid SSN. We use the same data set as used in the Tyler and Kling paper (2006). Reentry Roundtable on Education, March 31 and April 1, 2008 Prison-based Adult Basic Education (ABE) and Post-release Labor Market Outcomes 5 at least 12 quarters of post-release employment data. The first selection decision is driven by the fact that inmates who entered prison prior to October 1994 tended to serve much less time in prison than subsequent offenders because of a different sentencing regime in the pre-1994 period. Although there was another change in Florida sentencing policy in 1995 mandating that all inmates, regardless of the type of crime they committed, serve a minimum of 85 percent of their sentences, this does not appear to cause any selection in the current sample because all inmates in our sample admitted after October 1, 1994 appear to have been serving more than 85 percent of their sentences even before the actual passage of this law. The second selection decision is based on our desire to observe at least 12 quarters of post-release labor market outcomes. Given the UI wage records at our disposal, this means that none of our sample members entered prison after February, 1999. In our analyses we use the forecasted release date of each inmate instead of the actual release date as the actual release date may be endogenous to the receipt of prison-based programming including ABE. If we were to ignore TABE proficiency levels and instead selected a sample based solely on (1) being a school dropout, (2) entering prison after October 1, 1994, and (3) having a forecasted release date on or before February 1999, a total of 13,925 individuals in the master data would be eligible for inclusion. Among these individuals 13,925 male dropouts who span all TABE proficiency levels, there are 3,790 males who tested below the ninth grade proficiency level on the TABE and took ABE classes (i.e. ABE group) during their prison spell. In the data we find that there are 5,822 males who also tested below the ninth grade proficiency level on the TABE but did not take any ABE or GED classes (i.e. comparison group) during their prison spell. Since some individuals in our data enter and exit prison more than once during the sampling period (i.e., they have more than one prison “spell”), the total number of prison admission spells is slightly larger than the number of inmates. In Table 1, we present descriptive statistics on inmates in the ABE and comparison groups, as well as for all inmates who are high school dropouts.